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Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
🤔 Prediction Markets: Where Sharks Thrive
Prediction markets offer a unique platform where individuals can bet on future events, but the odds are often stacked against the average person, leaving only a few "sharks" to reap significant profits. These markets provide a practical value by allowing participants to profit from their insights and knowledge, making them a fascinating yet challenging space for those looking to make informed bets.
2:05 pm, May 4, 2026
guid
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48007503
source_url
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11
author_name
JumpCrisscross
id: 2471
uid: rglm9
insdate: 2026-05-04 14:05:18
title: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
additional: 🤔 Prediction Markets: Where Sharks Thrive
Prediction markets offer a unique platform where individuals can bet on future events, but the odds are often stacked against the average person, leaving only a few "sharks" to reap significant profits. These markets provide a practical value by allowing participants to profit from their insights and knowledge, making them a fascinating yet challenging space for those looking to make informed bets.
category: Hacker News
md5:
guid: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48007503
source_url: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11
updated:
image:
author_name: JumpCrisscross
author_link:
uid: rglm9
insdate: 2026-05-04 14:05:18
title: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
additional: 🤔 Prediction Markets: Where Sharks Thrive
Prediction markets offer a unique platform where individuals can bet on future events, but the odds are often stacked against the average person, leaving only a few "sharks" to reap significant profits. These markets provide a practical value by allowing participants to profit from their insights and knowledge, making them a fascinating yet challenging space for those looking to make informed bets.
category: Hacker News
md5:
guid: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48007503
source_url: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11
updated:
image:
author_name: JumpCrisscross
author_link:
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- Apple to increase spend with Broadcom to produce billions more U.S. chips
- Apple's 512GB Mac Studio vanishes, a quiet acknowledgment of the RAM shortage
- Apple's AI Can Now Change Your Passwords. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
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- Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal
- Apple: Embarrassingly Simple Self-Distillation Improves Code Generation
- Applying Brevity and Language Efficiency in Prompt Engineering
- Approximating Hyperbolic Tangent
- April 2026 TLDR Setup for Ollama and Gemma 4 26B on a Mac mini
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- Architecture Description Languages [pdf]
- Are AI Labs Pelicanmaxxing?
- Are LLMs not getting better?
- Are insecure code completions in PyCharm a vulnerability?
- Are the Mysteries of Quantum Mechanics Beginning to Dissolve?
- Are we offloading too much of our thinking to AI?
- Arena AI Model ELO History
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- Armstrong Effect
- Around 200 Stanford students walk out as Google CEO takes stage
- Ars Astronomica – English translations of rare Hebrew and Latin astronomy texts
- Ars Technica Fires Reporter After AI Controversy Involving Fabricated Quotes
- Ars Technica fires reporter after AI controversy involving fabricated quotes
- Ars Technica: Our newsroom AI policy
- Art Bits from HyperCard
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- Artemis II and the invisible hazard on the way to the Moon
- Artemis II is not safe to fly
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- Artie (YC S23) Is Hiring Software Engineers
- Artificial intelligence is not conscious – Ted Chiang
- Artificial-life: A simple (300 lines of code) reproduction of Computational Life
- As a result of a US Government directive, we are suspending access to Fable 5
- As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers
- Asahi Linux 7.1 Progress Report
- Asahi Linux Progress Linux 7.0
- Ascending into the Realm of Japanese Charts
- Ashby (YC W19) Is Hiring EMEA Engineers Who Can Design
- Ashby (YC W19) Is Hiring Engineers Who Make Product Decisions
- Asian AI startups launch Mythos-like models
- Ask ChatGPT to pick a number from 1-10000, it generally selects from 7200-7500
- Ask HN: Academic study on AI's impact on software development – want to join?
- Ask HN: Add flag for AI-generated articles
- Ask HN: Anthropic banned me from using Claude Code and I don't know what to do
- Ask HN: Any AWS billing issues known? Amazon forecast of 3 billion dollars
- Ask HN: Apple terminated our dev account over a rogue employee
- Ask HN: Are most corporate SWE jobs performative?
- Ask HN: Due to spam on GitHub, what platforms can I move my projects?
- Ask HN: European Tech Alternatives?
- Ask HN: Have top AI research institutions just given up on the idea of safety?
- Ask HN: How are you all staying sane?
- Ask HN: How did you land your first projects as a solo engineer/consultant?
- Ask HN: How do you handle marketing as a solo technical founder?
- Ask HN: How is AI-assisted coding going for you professionally?
- Ask HN: How to Be Alone?
- Ask HN: How to be SOC2 Type 2 compliant as a solo-entreprenuer?
- Ask HN: Is "no source code was copied" still a sufficient copyright defense?
- Ask HN: Is GitHub preparing to go behind a login wall?
- Ask HN: Is anyone experimenting with different ways of using LLMs for coding?
- Ask HN: Is anyone working at least 4 hours daily on an Apple Vision Pro?
- Ask HN: Is it just me, or is software buggier across the board?
- Ask HN: My ISP is telling my neighbors their slow internet is because of me
- Ask HN: Please restrict new accounts from posting
- Ask HN: Remember Fidonet?
- Ask HN: Share your productive usage of OpenClaw
- Ask HN: So what happened to Facebook "localhost" tracking?
- Ask HN: What Are You Working On? (July 2026)
- Ask HN: What Are You Working On? (March 2026)
- Ask HN: What are you working on? (June 2026)
- Ask HN: What are you working on? (May 2026)
- Ask HN: Who is hiring? (June 2026)
- Ask HN: Who is hiring? (March 2026)
- Ask HN: Who wants to be hired? (June 2026)
- Ask HN: Why hasn't there been a real competitor to Ticketmaster yet?
- Ask HN: Why is the HN crowd so anti-AI?
- Ask HN: Will programmers write more efficient code during the memory shortage?
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- Aspartame is not that bad?
- Assessing Claude Mythos Preview's cybersecurity capabilities
- Astra: An open-source observatory control software
- Astro 7.0
- Astronauts describe persistent 'observer' sensation after 6 month missions
- Astronomers Find the Edge of the Milky Way
- Astronomers find the edge of the Milky Way
- Astrophysicists Puzzle over Webb’s New Universe
- Async Programming Is Just Inject Time
- Async Rust never left the MVP state
- At Protocol: Building the Social Internet
- At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared
- At long last, InfoWars is ours
- Atlassian Enables Default Data Collection to Train AI
- Atlassian defends firing engineer for suggesting CEO is 'rich jerk'
- Atlassian to cut roughly 1,600 jobs in pivot to AI
- Atomic Display Switching: Solving
- Attie.ai
- AttoChess, a complete, playable chess program for 16-bit x86 DOS in 278 bytes
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- Attyx – tiny and fast GPU-accelerated terminal emulator written in Zig
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- Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents
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- AutoKernel: Autoresearch for GPU Kernels
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- AyaFlow: A high-performance, eBPF-based network traffic analyzer written in Rust
- Azure Linux 4.0 is Microsoft's first general-purpose Linux
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- BMW Group to deploy humanoid robots in production in Germany for the first time
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- BYD overtakes Tesla and Kia as the best-selling EV brand in key overseas markets
- BYD's bet on EVs is paying off as drivers ditch gas amid rising oil prices
- BYOMesh – New LoRa mesh radio offers 100x the bandwidth
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- Bacteria found in the human intestine capable of improving muscle strength
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- BareMetal RAM Dumper – Bare-metal x86 tool for Cold Boot Attack experiments
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- Bashblog – a single bash script to create blogs
- Battle for Wesnoth: open-source, turn-based strategy game
- Bcachefs creator insists his custom LLM is female and 'fully conscious'
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- Be intentional about how AI changes your codebase
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- Beautiful Type Erasure with C++26 Reflection
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- Beyond Semantic Similarity
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- Bible as RAG Database
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- Big Banana Car
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- Biggest Probabilistic Computer Turns Noise into Answers
- Bild AI (YC W25) Is Hiring Founding Product Engineers
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- Bild AI (YC W25) Is Hiring a Founding Product Engineer
- Billion-Parameter Theories
- Binary Coverage the Wrong Way
- Binary GCD
- Biology is a Burrito: A text- and visual-based journey through a living cell
- Biscuit
- Bitburner, programming-based incremental game
- Bitcoin and quantum computing
- Bitcoin miners are losing $19,000 on every BTC produced as difficulty drops 7.8%
- Bitmap fonts make computers feel like computers again
- Bitwarden scrubs 'Always free' and 'Inclusion' values from its site
- Bjarne Stroustrup: How do I deal with memory leaks? (2022)
- Blacksky AppView
- Blaise – A modern self-hosting zero-legacy Object Pascal compiler targeting QBE
- Blatant AI slop just won a 25k USD DeepMind Kaggle Grand Prize
- Block spent $68M on a single party in September 2025
- Block the "Upgrade to Tahoe" Alerts
- Block the “Upgrade to Tahoe” Alerts
- Blocking Internet Archive Won't Stop AI, but Will Erase Web's Historical Record
- Blog ran on Ubuntu 16.04 for 10 years. I migrated it to FreeBSD
- Blogger defeats photographer's copyright claim
- Blogging can just be stating the obvious
- Blood test boosts Alzheimer's diagnosis accuracy to 94.5%, clinical study shows
- Bloom (YC P26) Is Hiring
- Blorp Language
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- Bluesky Trademarks ATProto
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- Bobby Prince, composer for Doom, Wolfenstein 3D, and Duke Nukem 3D, has died
- Boffin claims Microsoft’s “quantum leap” is invalid due to “basic Python errors”
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- Books Are Not Remotely Too Expensive
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- Bootimus – A Self-Contained PXE and HTTP Boot Server
- Borrow-checking without type-checking
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- Bot vs human traffic
- Bouncer: Block "crypto", "rage politics", and more from your X feed using AI
- Boy I was wrong about the Fediverse
- Brazil's Pix Payment System Faces Pressure from Visa and Mastercard
- Breaking Down 50M Pins: A Smarter Way to Design 3D IC Packages
- Breaking Free
- Breakthroughs for batteries could soon make them better
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- Bring Back Idiomatic Design
- Bring back crappy forums
- Bring your own Agent to MS Teams
- Bringing Chrome to ARM64 Linux Devices
- Bringing PyTorch Monarch to AMD GPUs
- Bringing Up DeepSeek-V4-Flash on AMD MI300X
- Britain is ejecting hereditary nobles from Parliament after 700 years
- Britain today generating 90%+ of electricity from renewables
- British Columbia to end time changes, adopt year-round daylight time
- British Columbia, Time Zones, and Postgres
- Bubble Sorted Amen Break
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- Building for the Future
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- Building from zero after addiction, prison, and a felony
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- Bun has an open PR adding shared-memory threads to JavaScriptCore
- Bun is being ported from Zig to Rust
- Bun's unreleased Rust port has 13,365 unsafe blocks
- Bun: cgroup-aware AvailableParallelism / HardwareConcurrency on Linux
- BunnyCDN has been silently losing our production files for 15 months
- Burnout is real for open source maintainers
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- Businesses with ugly AI menu redesigns
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- Byrne's Euclid
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- C++26 is done ISO C++ standards meeting, Trip Report
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- C64 Basic Dungeon Crawler: Goblin Attack (C64 Basic Part 8)
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- CATL's new LFP battery can charge from 10 to 98% in less than 7 minutes
- CBP Directive 3340-049B: Border Search of Electronic Devices
- CBP updated its electronic device search directive in Jan 2026
- CC-Canary: Detect early signs of regressions in Claude Code
- CC-Wiki: Turn Claude Code sessions into a shareable knowledge base wiki
- CEOs Who Think AI Replaces Their Employees Are Just Bad CEOs
- CERN levels up with new superconducting karts
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- CERN uses tiny AI models burned into silicon for real-time LHC data filtering
- CERT is releasing six CVEs for serious security vulnerabilities in dnsmasq
- CISA Admin Leaked AWS GovCloud Keys on GitHub
- CODA: Rewriting Transformer Blocks as GEMM-Epilogue Programs
- CPanel and WHM Authentication Bypass – CVE-2026-41940
- CPanel's Black Week: 3 New Vulnerabilities Patched After Attack on 44k Servers
- CRDTs merge concurrent edits. Why not concurrent creation?
- CSP for Pentesters: Understanding the Fundamentals
- CSS as a Query Language
- CSS is DOOMed
- CSS-Native Parallax Effect
- CSSQuake
- CT scans of BYD car parts
- CUDA-oxide: Nvidia's official Rust to CUDA compiler
- CVE-2026-25089: FortiSandbox unauthenticated command injection added to CISA KEV
- CVE-2026-28952: Apple macOS 26.5 Kernel Vuln found by Claude
- CVE-2026-31431: Copy Fail vs. rootless containers
- CVE-2026-3888: Important Snap Flaw Enables Local Privilege Escalation to Root
- CVE-Bench: testing LLM agents on real-world vulnerability patches
- Cal.diy: open-source community edition of cal.com
- California bill would require patches or refunds when online games shut down
- California farmers to destroy 420k peach trees following Del Monte bankruptcy
- California ghost-gun bill wants 3D printers to play cop, EFF says
- California moves to exempt Linux from its age-verification law after backlash
- California to begin ticketing driverless cars that violate traffic laws
- California's Battery Array Is as Powerful as 12 Nuclear Power Plants
- California's Digital Age Assurance Act, and FOSS
- Cambodia unveils a statue of famous landmine-sniffing rat Magawa
- Can Claude Fly a Plane?
- Can I disable all data collection from my vehicle?
- Can LLMs Perform Deep Technical Comprehension of Computer Architecture Papers
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- Can a MUD evaluate LLMs? A $99 proof of concept
- Can a wealthy family change the course of a deadly brain disease?
- Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
- Can we code our way out of gentrification?
- Can we have the day off?
- Can you instruct a robot to make a PBJ sandwich?
- Can you stop beans from making you gassy?
- Can't Stop the Signal. Poison It
- Canada is looking to build up to 10 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years
- Canada plans 'nuclear renaissance' with up to 10 reactors built by 2040
- Canada to order military plane fleet from Sweden in shift from US suppliers
- Canada's bill C-22 mandates mass metadata surveillance
- Canada's bill C-22 mandates mass metadata surveillance of Canadians
- Canada’s Bill C-22 Is a Repackaged Version of Last Year’s Surveillance Nightmare
- Cancel ChatGPT AI boycott surges after OpenAI pentagon military deal
- Cannabinoids remove plaque-forming Alzheimer's proteins from brain cells
- Cannabinoids remove plaque-forming Alzheimer's proteins from brain cells (2016)
- Cannibalism
- Canonical Under Attack
- Canvas (Instructure) LMS Down in Ongoing Ransomware Attack
- Canvas is down as ShinyHunters threatens to leak schools’ data
- Capability-Based Security for Redox: Namespace and CWD as Capabilities
- Capitalism Gone Wrong
- Capstone – multi-platform, multi-architecture disassembly framework
- Captcha proves you're human. HATCHA proves you're not
- Capybara: A Unified Visual Creation Model
- CarPlay Is Additive
- Carbon dioxide overload in human blood suggests a toxic atmosphere in 50 years
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- Care homes and hotels in Japan shut as expansion strategy unravels
- Carrot Disclosure: Forgejo
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- CasNum
- Case study: recovery of a corrupted 12 TB multi-device pool
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- Castor: CERN Advanced STORage Manager
- Casus Belli Engineering
- Cat (YC S22) Seeks Fractional Engineer to Build AI-Native Growth Toolkit
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- Celebrating Tony Hoare's mark on computer science
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- Cessation of public development of Kefir C compiler
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- ChatGPT Images 2.0
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- Chatto is now Open Source
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- Circle Medical (YC S15) Is Hiring a Mobile Engineer
- Circuit-level PDP-11/34 emulator
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- Cirrus Labs to join OpenAI shut down Circus CI on Monday, June 1, 2026
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- Claude Brain
- Claude Code Cheat Sheet
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- Claude Code LSP
- Claude Code Remote Control
- Claude Code Unpacked : A visual guide
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- Claude Code conducts A/B tests on core features
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- Claude Code sends 33k tokens before reading the prompt; OpenCode sends 7k
- Claude Code to be removed from Anthropic's Pro plan?
- Claude Code wiped our production database with a Terraform command
- Claude Code – Everything You Can Configure That the Docs Don't Tell You
- Claude Code, Claude Cowork and Codex #5
- Claude Code: Channels
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- Closure of the Weatheradio Service in Canada
- Closure of the Weatheradio service in Canada
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- Cloudflare launched self-managed OAuth for all
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- Codex Micro
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- Codex scraped the ICM website and discovered 2026 Fields Medal winner list
- Codex-maxxing
- Coding Agents Could Make Free Software Matter Again